2.2 Third Party Challenges and Election Outlook

1. What kind of voters did Ross Perot appeal to? He appealed to non-college white people who were unhappy with the way America was and wanted change.

2. What similar message do voters hear from Trump & Perot? Both blame one thing on destroying the nation--Perot on debt and Trump on illegal immigration. Both want protectionist trade policies, and they also want allies to pay more for defense. In terms of actual policy though, they really have no message.

3. What similar strategy  is used by both Trump & Perot? Both used media to its full extent and had a prominent television presence. The candidates relied on their charisma, simple message, and the media.

4. What was the result of the Perot campaign in 1992? His campaign gained 20 million votes but no electoral votes. Since he was an Independent from a conservative Republican background, he ended up splitting Republican votes so that the Republican candidate lost to the Democrat one.

5. Why does the author suggest that Perot helped lead to Trump's success in 2016? Perot laid out a path for Trump's campaign and also taught Trump a lesson to avoid: don't run as Independent. By running as a Republican, Trump managed to snag the nomination and end up a final major party candidate very close to the presidency--closer than Perot.

6. What is the most likely Electoral Vote outcome at this point? Hillary (325.9) will win the presidency over Trump (211.0).

7. What was the only date in which Trump had a better chance of winning the election than Clinton? July 30

8. What % chance does Clinton have of winning the election today? Clinton has an 81.5% chance.

9. Which date did she have the best chance of winning the election? August 14

10. Which 3 states (or districts) does the forecast predict Clinton will win by the biggest margin? Maryland, Massachusetts, California

11. Which 3 states does the forecast predict Trump will win by the biggest margin? Alabama, Oklahoma, West Virginia

12. What % chance does Clinton have of winning the popular vote?  How about Trump? Clinton has 49.6% chance, and Trump has 43.9% chance.

13.  HOW ABOUT GARY JOHNSON? Johnson has 5.0% chance.

2.1 Do Debates Matter????

1. Right before the first debate, how close was the race?  How much do debates typically impact the polls? Clinton was ahead of Trump by 3 percent. Debates can easily alter the polls, when the race is as close as this one. 

2. Why are these debates less important than the debates that take place in the primaries? In primaries, people are usually making their first impressions of the candidates; however, with the debates, most people are usually decided already, so the debates usually reinforce their opinions.

3. Why can we not be sure that the debates themselves are what causes changes in the polls during the debate season? There are other factors that come into play during elections, such as media coverage, that can prove that elections and debates are not directly related; other factors exists so that we shouldn't extrapolate. 

4. How was the Obama-Romney campaign affected by the first debate? After the first debate, Obama lost 4 percentage points to Romney, because it wasn't as good as it could've been. 

5. What aspects of Richard Nixon & Al Gore's debate performances may have swung the outcome of elections?  Is this related to how they would perform at president in any way? Nixon was not physically appealing on TV because he was sweating and did not have makeup on; Al Gore's uninterested sigh may have cost him his presidency. These aren't indications of their presidential ability, though.

6. How might low expectations of Trump's performance end up helping him? Trump seemed ridiculous enough to set him apart from any other candidate ever, which won him votes because people liked his persona and flamboyance. 

7.  How can the media impact what people think about the performances in the debate? By selecting what they want to highlight in the debate, they draw particular attention to these details, while skimming over others. This may skew public opinion because the media coverage can be bias. 

8. How did the Arizona State study measure the media's effects on people's perception? What was the result of their study? Arizona State took three groups of people, and showed them an entire 90 minute debate, a 20 minute NBC commentary, and an 20 minute CNN commentary. They found that those who watched either the real debate or the CNN commentary thought Kerry won, and those who watched the NBC one thought Bush won. This shows the bias and effects of media coverage as they may have presented different information to the public.