2.7 Gerrymandering

1. The Supreme Court (SCOTUS) might try to avoid this case, why do they have to hear it? Though they are hesitant to look into this, they have to because of regulations on these voting rights cases. Additionally, because of gerrymandering, the districts are given an unfair advantage or disadvantage. 

2. How can Trump impact the outcome of this case - in the event that it wasn't decided this year?Because Trump won the presidency, he has the power to appoint a new supreme court justice, thus altering the progress they are making. 

3. How big do Democrats have to win national elections in order to actually win control of the House? Democrats have to win by nine popular percentage points to win control of the House. 

4. Why has SCOTUS been unwilling to weigh in on partisan gerrymandering before? The people on the Supreme Court don’t want to seem undemocratic and unfair, or disrespectful to their representatives. 

5. Why does SCOTUS look bad for intervening in Bush V Gore? Since SCOTUS basically picked the Republican president in this election, they are weary to intervene anymore. 

6. How does the lack of political parties during the writing of the Constitution allow for political parties to take advantage of the current laws in place? The Framers did not take into consideration political parties, so the judges are now left to pick sides and judge democracy. 

7. Why have judges in the past found it so difficult to come up with a solution for partisan gerrymandering?  (They don't like gerrymandering, but don't have a solution - why?) They don’t want to involve themselves with the elections because they want to remain fair and unbiased when judging cases. Additionally, they must decide which group should be helped.

8. What do the new litigants mean when they use the term "wasted votes"? Wasted votes is used to determine party dominance in a certain district, so the opposition is so small that it doesn’t really matter who they vote for the majority will win. 

9. Why is Wisconsin a particularly good place to try their ideas? Districts  are already Republican, so the minority can’t gerrymander their way into a higher position. 

10. If gerrymandering is struck down by SCOTUS, who feels the effects immediately? When would most people feel the effects of the decision? Wisconsin will be impacted first of course, and then when the census comes around, redistricting will be an issue. 

2.6 Paul Ryan, more like Paul Cryin. :'(

1. What are the reasons given that suggest that Trump will likely follow Ryan's legislative agenda instead of Ryan following Trump's? Trump isn’t the most pleasant person to get elected, even his own party is unsure of him; he isn’t in the position to get what he wants from them. He tries to appeal to his party first, rather than being problematic. 

2. What is the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities? This Center want to help the poor and low-income Americans. 

3. What Lyndon Johnson programs are likely to be cut significantly? Johnson established permanent food stamps in 1964 and Medicaid in 1965. The Affordable Healthcare Act will be repealed, food stamps will be slashed and given over to the states to fund other things (block grants). 

4. What happened to welfare in the 1990s that will likely happen to these programs? With block granting, welfare was basically nonexistent. These programs were basically nonexistent due to this block granting system. 

5. If states have freedom to make decisions in spending for these programs, what are they most likely to do? States will use this for their own purposes rather than being conscious of poor people. 

6. Why does Paul Ryan's plan advocate for allowing insurance companies to sell across state lines? Ryan can ban states from enabling strict regulations on insurance and the marketplace. 

7. What would be the effect of funding Medicaid through block grants? Disadvantaged people will lose their funding, causing more issues, as states will probably invest in things other than Medicaid if they had a choice.

8. What are the two areas the article claims are the things Paul Ryan does not want  to cut? Medicare and Social Security. 

9. Ryan wants to cut spending for all sorts of programs, but where does he want to increase federal spending? He wants to increase it in spending on defense. 

10. According to the article, what was the impact of poverty fighting programs implemented in the 1960s? These programs pumped more money into the welfare system, but wasn’t really enough to decrease poverty, rather just make it less….poverished. 

11. Who would benefit most from Paul Ryan's tax plan? The wealthy, insurance companies, and hospitals. 

12. What does he want to do to Social Security & Medicare (programs in which ALL people use)? He wants to reform them so that way the government has more control over what happens with the funding.  

2.5 Congress Gives Me ConStress

1. What was the makeup of the Congress that began in 2009 with Obama's first term? The Democrats held a 16-seat Senate majority and a 79-seat House edge. 

2. What is the current makeup of the Congress (Before the new one takes office in January)? Now the Republicans are the majorities in both chambers.

3. Why is a 60 vote majority so critical in the Senate? It means they can enjoy a filibuster-proof majority. 

4. When did the Republicans take control of each house of Congress? The Senate fell into Republican hands in 2014, and the House in 2010.

5. Why was Republican John Boehner forced out of his role as Speaker of the House? His fall began with a 2012 fiscal cliff agreement; republicans wanted billions in spending cuts in exchange for tax increases, and Boehner tried to pass a Republican spending bill known as Plan B. Conservatives wanted him to stand up to Obama and threatened to recall him as speaker. Boehner then resigned after helping seal the current budget deal.

6. What has been the main issue that Obama & the Congress have been fighting over? Tax cuts and other fiscal disagreements, additionally, they have been fighting over Obamacare. 

7. How are the Tea Party Caucus and the Freedom Caucus different from other Republicans? Both are way more conservative than normal Republicans, and advocate for quickly passing conservative bills. 

8. What is happening to moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans?  Which types of elections are they losing to lose their seats? Now, there are less moderates, and more polarization within the parties. Because of gerrymandering, mid term elections call for reapportionment. 

9. Why does the article predict that there will be little conflict between the president and Congress over his last year in office? The Speaker and Majority Leader are not interested in passing any big major bills in Obama's last year, attributed to the lame-duck period. Congress will continue to pass bills to keep the government funded, but they will not touch on anything major just yet. 

2.4 THE ELECTION :,(

1. How does a candidate win in the Electoral College system? In this system, a candidate must receive at least 270 votes to win, and states have a varied number of electoral votes based on their representation in Congress Candidates often target large states or swing states to increase their electoral college votes, and thus winning the election. (i.e. Florida and Ohio in this election, etc.)

2. When people cast their vote for president, what are they actually voting for? People are actually voting for a each party's cluster of electors who will determine the winner of the election. 

3. When will the actual Electoral College vote count take place? Electors will cast their vote on December 19.

4. What 3 problems with the Electoral College does the article identify? Even though a candidate can win the popular vote, they won't be the president unless they win the electoral too. Swing states are so influential, the votes in other states seem to be wasted. Additionally, each state is guaranteed three electors minimum, so if a state is small it can still have a tiny advantage. 

5. What are the penalties for an elector that does not vote as their state voted? Only thirty states have implemented penalties for these electors if they don't vote as their state voted, but oftentimes, they are fined, or worse: they can lose their position. 

6. Why haven't there been many faithless electors before? Parties vet their electors thoroughly, ensuring that they remain faithful to the party.

7. Why did the Framers choose to use the Electoral College? The Framers did not want the president to be put in the hands of all citizens, so they chose to have one select group of people to make that choice to separate the people from the government. 

8. How did political parties change this process? The Constitution did not say anything about how the electors would be chosen, so parties decided that they would nominate their own electors, and the party wanted to make sure the electors were loyal (passing laws to require them to vote for the party's nominee).

9. What does the article say are the 3 reasons the Electoral College is a good system? It ensures that a candidate cannot win from only one region of the country/makes sure all states can contribute. The electoral vote will be less likely to result in a tie, and it prevents large urban voters from overshadowing rural people.

10. How do the American people feel about the Electoral College? People would love to transition to the popular vote system. 

11. Explain how the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact would work. If a state signs this compact, it would mean that the state has to contribute its electors to the national winner, rather than the state winner. In this case, whoever wins the popular vote will win the electoral vote also, but only if 270 or more votes agree to do the same.

12. Which states would be opposed to this plan? Republicans and swing states are in opposition.

2.3 Do Interest Groups Make You Sad?

1. Which health based interest groups are identified as receiving funding from Coke? The American Heart Association, the American Diabetes Association, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are all receiving funding from Coca-Cola Co. according to two Boston University researchers.

2. What did these health based groups do in return for Coca Cola? The researchers identified 29 proposed public health bills that one or both of the two companies lobbied against all aimed to reduce soda consumption to improve public health. The American Heart Association released a statement saying that partnering with these beverage companies strengthen their fight for a solution, and under no circumstances does funding affect their positions. 

3. What does the article claim the sugar industry did 50 years ago to the Journal of the American Medical Association Internal Medicine study? A study showed how the sugar industry funded Harvard scientist research that claimed cholesterol and saturated fats were culprits of heart disease, and downplayed studies that suggested sugar was also a crucial ingredient of heart disease. 

4. What kinds of policies is Coca Cola trying to lobby against now? Now, Coca-Cola is providing support for research that downplays the role of that diet and sugary drinks have in the obesity epidemic. Also Save the Children pulled its support for soda taxes after receiving a $5 million grant from Coca-Cola. 

5. What legislation was being considered in California that would have impacted ride sharing companies like Uber and Lyft? The california Public Utilities Commission is considering a new rule which limits the ability for people who drive Ubers to use a rented vehicle. 

6. How much money did those companies spend lobbying California lawmakers? Uber and Lyft spent nearly $900,000 lobbying. 

7. Which political parties are giving support to Uber and Lyft? Democrats are supporting Uber and Lyft because most are young or represent regions with large tech employers. 

8. Who seems to be the loser when policies regulating Uber and Lyft are not adopted? The head of the California Public Utilities Commission loses in the end, as he has a lot on his plate, and as the policies are not adopted even with his hard work.

2.2 Third Party Challenges and Election Outlook

1. What kind of voters did Ross Perot appeal to? He appealed to non-college white people who were unhappy with the way America was and wanted change.

2. What similar message do voters hear from Trump & Perot? Both blame one thing on destroying the nation--Perot on debt and Trump on illegal immigration. Both want protectionist trade policies, and they also want allies to pay more for defense. In terms of actual policy though, they really have no message.

3. What similar strategy  is used by both Trump & Perot? Both used media to its full extent and had a prominent television presence. The candidates relied on their charisma, simple message, and the media.

4. What was the result of the Perot campaign in 1992? His campaign gained 20 million votes but no electoral votes. Since he was an Independent from a conservative Republican background, he ended up splitting Republican votes so that the Republican candidate lost to the Democrat one.

5. Why does the author suggest that Perot helped lead to Trump's success in 2016? Perot laid out a path for Trump's campaign and also taught Trump a lesson to avoid: don't run as Independent. By running as a Republican, Trump managed to snag the nomination and end up a final major party candidate very close to the presidency--closer than Perot.

6. What is the most likely Electoral Vote outcome at this point? Hillary (325.9) will win the presidency over Trump (211.0).

7. What was the only date in which Trump had a better chance of winning the election than Clinton? July 30

8. What % chance does Clinton have of winning the election today? Clinton has an 81.5% chance.

9. Which date did she have the best chance of winning the election? August 14

10. Which 3 states (or districts) does the forecast predict Clinton will win by the biggest margin? Maryland, Massachusetts, California

11. Which 3 states does the forecast predict Trump will win by the biggest margin? Alabama, Oklahoma, West Virginia

12. What % chance does Clinton have of winning the popular vote?  How about Trump? Clinton has 49.6% chance, and Trump has 43.9% chance.

13.  HOW ABOUT GARY JOHNSON? Johnson has 5.0% chance.

2.1 Do Debates Matter????

1. Right before the first debate, how close was the race?  How much do debates typically impact the polls? Clinton was ahead of Trump by 3 percent. Debates can easily alter the polls, when the race is as close as this one. 

2. Why are these debates less important than the debates that take place in the primaries? In primaries, people are usually making their first impressions of the candidates; however, with the debates, most people are usually decided already, so the debates usually reinforce their opinions.

3. Why can we not be sure that the debates themselves are what causes changes in the polls during the debate season? There are other factors that come into play during elections, such as media coverage, that can prove that elections and debates are not directly related; other factors exists so that we shouldn't extrapolate. 

4. How was the Obama-Romney campaign affected by the first debate? After the first debate, Obama lost 4 percentage points to Romney, because it wasn't as good as it could've been. 

5. What aspects of Richard Nixon & Al Gore's debate performances may have swung the outcome of elections?  Is this related to how they would perform at president in any way? Nixon was not physically appealing on TV because he was sweating and did not have makeup on; Al Gore's uninterested sigh may have cost him his presidency. These aren't indications of their presidential ability, though.

6. How might low expectations of Trump's performance end up helping him? Trump seemed ridiculous enough to set him apart from any other candidate ever, which won him votes because people liked his persona and flamboyance. 

7.  How can the media impact what people think about the performances in the debate? By selecting what they want to highlight in the debate, they draw particular attention to these details, while skimming over others. This may skew public opinion because the media coverage can be bias. 

8. How did the Arizona State study measure the media's effects on people's perception? What was the result of their study? Arizona State took three groups of people, and showed them an entire 90 minute debate, a 20 minute NBC commentary, and an 20 minute CNN commentary. They found that those who watched either the real debate or the CNN commentary thought Kerry won, and those who watched the NBC one thought Bush won. This shows the bias and effects of media coverage as they may have presented different information to the public. 

1.5 Did the Media Make Trump?????

1. What do people who do blame the media for Trump argue that they did? Those people believed that the media gave Trump too much coverage, and that the media's tone certainly influenced the voters in the Republican contest. 

2. What did Berelson and Lazarsfeld find in their study of media impact? They found little evidence that the media influenced whom the people voted for. They found that their choices were usually made because of the voter's partisan predisposition, socioeconomic standing, and familial influences. 

3. What aspects of the election does the media tend to focus on? Primaries and caucuses because they have more impact on whom the voters will vote for than the general election itself. The preparation is a little more important than the election itself in influencing how the people will vote. 

4. What does "priming" mean? It refers to the way the press can influence the standards by which the audience evaluate the candidate. 

5. What does the article claim is the main thing the media did that impacted Trump's success? The coverage he received definitely helped his numbers as most were in "agenda-setting positions." He got more coverage than any of his other Republican rivals. One study finds that Trump got almost a billion dollars' worth of free media coverage. 

6. What impacts did this (#5) have exactly? It signaled that Trump's candidacy was something serious, and the amount of time the media spend on issues such as trade and immigration means the audience will more likely consider these issues when choosing a candidate. 

7. What evidence does this author use to refute the claims that Trump has benefited from the coverage?  He points out that now about 70 percent of voters view him in a bad light, and he would lose to Clinton by 12 points if we were to have the election today. Media coverage does not necessarily bring positive attention. 

8. When does the author claim that media coverage is most important to a candidate? Patterson claims that the best indicators of a successful invisible primary is where the media is most important/present. 

9. How does the article characterize the media coverage of Trump during the primaries? Patterson also says that Trump receives more positive and neutral coverage than any other Republican primaries. 

10. Why does the author claim that the "media is the effect, not the cause?" He says the media was just noting that there were more and more Republican primary voters becoming receptive of Trump. Instead of blindly following the news, journalists attempt to understand the trends that come with this election. 

1.4 Polls and Predictions

1. What has changed since Clinton's high point in Mid-August? Since her peak, some key states were being competitive again, as she may lose them to Trump. This may be caused by her pneumonia and her fainting spell.

2. Looking at the graph, when was the largest lead for Clinton over Trump in the polls? The week of August 7th. 

3.  About how big is the gap between the candidates now? Three percentage points.

4. What arguments can Clinton's opponents make because of her new health issues? People can now say she's secretive and manipulative as she hid her pneumonia for a few days before coming out about it. 

5. Which swing states are mentioned and how does Clinton fare in those places? Her leads in swing states have gotten smaller: Virginia 11 points to 6, Wisconsin 11 points to 5, New Hampshire 9 points to 5, Pennsylvania 9 points to 6, Florida 5 points tie. 

6. What 3 reasons does the author give for the recent tightening in the polls? Trump started spending more money on TV ads, changed his campaign team and strategy, and has avoided controversies in the past month. In addition, Clinton had her email scandal and the Clinton Foundation issues, and she has pneumonia. 

7. What specific changes has the Trump campaign made since mid August? He has a new campaign team and also started investing in ads in swing states, and he has stopped doing constant terrible interviews. 

8. How has the Trump campaign changed its spending habits? He put more money into the swing state ads. 

9. What did the Clinton campaign change up in August? Clinton focused more so on fundraising instead of campaigning.

10. How does Vox author Jeff Stein account for some changes in the polls? He discussed the changes in the likelihood of someone replying to polls. They usually respond when they are totally in favor of the person they are supporting. 

11.  What is Obama's criticism of the way the media is handling Clinton and Trump? Obama criticizes the media's attempt to equalize the two candidates, and he advocates for Clinton's transparency. The Clinton Foundation is for a good cause, whereas Trump's buys paintings of himself. He says we cannot treat this like a reality show. He says that we can't act like there is equivalence in the two candidates. 

1.3 Independent Voters

1. What is the general understanding of the term "independent voter”? Many people call themselves independent voters to feel special. A special definition of an independent is a person who does not affiliate with the Democratic or Republican Party. However, an independent is anyone who says she is an independent. 

2. How do these researchers characterize voters who call themselves independent?

Independents are nothing more than partisans in disguise.

3. How do independent political preferences compare to those of democrats and republicans?Political scientists often find that independents have political preferences that are almost identical to their counterparts. 

4. What are "leaners"?   How are leaners different from party members? Leaners are those who identify as independent but still lean a certain way. It blurs the definition of being an independent. Political scientists consider then partisans in hiding rather than actually independents. 

5. What % of Americans call themselves independent?  Democrats?  Republicans?

42% call themselves independent, 29% Democrat, and 26% Republican. 

6. What % of Americans actually don't lean towards one of the parties? Out of the 42% who call themselves independent, only 13% are actually independent. 

7. Why are people likely to call themselves independent instead of identifying themselves with a party? Some people don’t want to present themselves  as “aggressive or stubborn” as many party activists seem. Independents appear calm and reasonable and trustworthy, because people think they are unbiased and have no aggressive standpoint. 

8. What prevents independents from forming a real third party challenge to democrats & republicans?For this to happen, two things must occur: first, people must truly believe that neither party can accurately represent them. They also must have to have coherent similar interests for them to choose a candidate. However some are more liberal, others conservative. 

9. Why don't independents actually impacct the outcome of elections that much? They are rarely real independents. Once they decide on a candidate it is hard to sway them from it. Besides, if they voted for the candidate, it would seem like they were part of that party all along. 

10. How are moderate voters different than "independents”? Moderates can be those who place themselves in the middle of the continuum. They can be moderate conservative or moderate liberal. And independents are not moderate at all, while moderates associate themselves with a party. 

11. How are "swing voters" and "undecided voters" different?Swing voters are usually undecided. They can be swayed either way. They aren’t independent or moderate, really, they can be manipulated. Undecided voters usually wait till the last minute to make their decision because they have no clue who they want to vote for until the last minute. 

1.2 Polarization

1.  What was unique about Hillary's response to a question about political polarization?

She kept her response very reality-oriented and acknowledged how much work it would take to get ideas through in such levels of polarization. She was straight forward and didn't dilly dally.

2. What does Hillary Clinton feel motivates her political opponents?

She feels that the major motivation for her opponents is spite and the will to bring her down.

3. How does she characterize those that make grand speeches about bringing the people together?

She thinks they're too optimistic and have illusions about America. She knows that unification of America is nearly impossible since it is so polarized.

4. What will be her strategy for dealing with political opponents if she wins office?

Even though she thinks of them strictly as enemies, she is completely willing to find a common ground and work toward a treaty, no matter how hard it would be.

5. What does she think will change about the public's perception of her if she wins?  Why does she think this?

She thinks the public's opinion of her is going to go up because they will see all her hard work and her achievement of earning the presidency.

6. What is the trend in approval ratings of recent presidents by both major parties?

The trend in approval ratings has gotten more separate; both parties give the other's presidents low ratings and they give their own presidents high ratings.

7. Which presidents since Eisenhower were the least polarizing?

Carter, Ford, Johnson

8. Which presidents have had the lowest approval rating among their own party?

Ford and Carter for the Republicans, and Johnson for the Democrats

9. Which presidents have had the lowest approval rating among the opposition party?

Obama for the Republicans and young Bush for the Democrats

1.1 Fun Comedy Stuff

1. Why are political candidates making appearances on late night television shows?  Which audiences are they most likely to reach that way?

Late night television shows offer comedic satire in order to appeal to millennials. As media presence and social interactions build relatability, candidates often use this outlet to to reach out to many different generations. The incorporation of comedy with serious matters allows viewers to enjoy their news. 

2. In what ways do viewers of political comedy shows benefit?

Viewers are kept up to date on current events and are able to learn about the various topics of debate among higher levels of our government. 

3. How can political comedy shows impact the way that voters evaluate candidates?
Political comedy enhances individual traits (i.e. Trump's combover), and in turn with these skits and humorous discussions, viewers are bound to take a side on the debates. Depending on how the candidates are portrayed, viewers develop a bias that either furthers their beliefs or refutes it. People tend to remember traits when they are repeatedly portrayed.  

4. What is the likely impact of late night TV coverage of the Trump campaign on voters?
Often, Trump is ridiculed for his physical appearance alongside his irrational plans for America. Late night television portrays him to be unreliable and a joke. The negative coverage sways the audience into not voting for him, but he still has a strong support system. 

5. How does late night political comedy cause viewers to seek out news from other sources?

One must have a precious knowledge of a topic to understand jokes and references present in these late night shows. The comedy may seem unreliable as bias is present, and in turn, the audience must still rely on traditional news sources to understand the full spectrum of issues discussed.

6. According to this 2015 report, what percentage of people claimed to get their news from "The Daily Show"?

12% of online Americans say that "The Daily Show" is their news source, 

7. In what ways are viewers of political comedy shows different from the general population?

Viewers of these political comedy shows are often younger and more liberal than in the past. 

8. What is the main reason viewers watch these shows?  What secondary benefits do they receive?

Almost 50% watch the show for entertainment, rather than actual news content; however, they learn about the issues and debates that are on the table. 

9. How are the viewing patterns of people who watch these shows different from other news sources?

Watching the news is easier than reading the news, as viewers of "The Daily Show" watch more consistently. News from CNN are less frequently visited as the written form is less comedic and visually available.